MarketWatch column says the ingredients for a U.S. stock market crash are already in place

Financial writer and former banker Satyajit Das argued in a Sept. 23 MarketWatch column that many of the conditions typically associated with a market crash are already present. He listed six ingredients: stretched valuations, heavy debt and weak cash buffers, elevated volatility, rising funding costs, channels of contagion, and limited shock absorbers. Das pointed to global debt at $348 trillion, or 308% of world output, along with high government debt burdens in Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom. He also highlighted off-balance-sheet financing at major technology companies, refinancing pressure through 2028, and banking exposure to private credit and non-bank institutions. At the same time, the broader market debate remains unsettled. Other reporting cited in the article showed rising Treasury yields and higher financing costs for AI-related borrowing, but also noted that parts of the U.S. economy remain strong and foreign inflows into U.S. equities have stayed robust. For crypto markets, the piece said Bitcoin still trades closely with risk assets, meaning a U.S. equity correction would likely spill over, even as spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.4 billion in net inflows last week.